×

You are using an outdated browser Internet Explorer. It does not support some functions of the site.

Recommend that you install one of the following browsers: Firefox, Opera or Chrome.

Contacts:

+7 961 270-60-01
ivdon@ivdon.ru

Mathematical modeling of competitors ' lead efficiency based on the theory of random processes

Abstract

Mathematical modeling of competitors ' lead efficiency based on the theory of random processes

Akindinova E.V., Zheltikova O.O.

Incoming article date: 03.04.2019

The paper proposes a mathematical model for evaluating the effectiveness of measures aimed at anticipating competitors in the market. The model is based on the theory of Markov random processes. It allows you to assess the probability of pre-emption in the implementation of commercial projects by one party over the other in a competitive environment. The dependences of probabilities of pre-emption of the parties from time to time. It is shown that these probabilities depend on the average project execution time of each competitor and have a maximum characterizing the most effective lead time. The obtained theoretical dependences allow us to analyze the possible outcomes of competition in market conditions.

Keywords: competition, market relations, advance, efficiency, commercial project, mathematical modeling, conflict of parties, random process, probability of state, time dependence