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  • On the issue of additional distance education program " Use of information technologies in engineering, scientific, administrative and management activities» Part II

    The article presents information about the training program "Use of information technologies in engineering, scientific, administrative and management activities", developed within the framework of the project of the "Engineering open public forum of scientific and technological activities, social and technological entrepreneurship "rozmys", which is carried out using the grant of the President of the Russian Federation for the development of civil society, provided by the presidential grants Fund. The program is intended for a wide range of engineers and specialists of industrial enterprises, scientists, research engineers, University professors, specialists in the field of administrative and management activities. In it, participants are invited to master a number of professional competencies in the field of organizational management using computer modeling. Forms of training are distance video lectures and practical classes. For each topic, an intermediate test is carried out, and their results are put up a final assessment. Participants who have successfully completed the training receive a certificate confirming the passage of 16 hour refresher course on our program.

    Keywords: distance education, advanced training, organizational management, computer modeling, computer simulators

  • Counter-current flows in rotating helium II

    The paper discusses the flow induced by centrifugal forces in helium II on the outside of the rotating cylinder. The analysis was carried out in the framework of Landau's two-fluid theory, in the approximation of a plane incompressible fluid. A two-parameter family of solutions of the equations of motion is revealed, in which the centrifugal forces for the normal component are fully compensated by counter-current (normal and super-fluid components) flows. According to preliminary estimates, the most stable of them is the flow, in which the pressure forces in the superconducting part are also compensated, The results show that in the analysis of helium II rotations it is necessary to take into account countercurrent instabilities.

    Keywords: helium II, rotating cylinder, two-fluid theory, counter-current flows, stability, centrifugal forces, pressure compensation

  • On the issue of additional distance education program " Use of information technologies in engineering, scientific, administrative and management activities» Part I

    The article presents information about the training program "Use of information technologies in engineering, scientific, administrative and management activities", developed within the framework of the project of the "Engineering open public forum of scientific and technological activities, social and technological entrepreneurship "rozmys", which is carried out using the grant of the President of the Russian Federation for the development of civil society, provided by the presidential grants Fund. The program is intended for a wide range of engineers and specialists of industrial enterprises, scientists, research engineers, University professors, specialists in the field of administrative and management activities. In it, participants are invited to master a number of professional competencies in the field of organizational management using computer modeling. Forms of training are distance video lectures and practical classes. For each topic, an intermediate test is carried out, and their results are put up a final assessment. Participants who have successfully completed the training receive a certificate confirming the passage of 16 hour refresher course on our program.

    Keywords: distance education, advanced training, organizational management, computer modeling, computer simulators

  • Forecasting short-term productivity in IT projects

    At the moment one of the most advanced flexible methodologies IT project management is SCRUM technology. Its feature is the partition of the whole work on short iterations (sprints), each of which represents a cyclic process, repeated all the way through the product development process. This allows you to constantly monitor the emerging risks and minimize them effects. Each sprint starts with planning, which sets the pace of work and stimulates high performance. The key point of planning is predicting the level of focus of the team on the implementation of the tasks, the so-called focus factor. It is the ratio productivity to labor intensity. The paper presents the results of numerical experiments to identify the best methods for predicting this indicator. In their the production data of one of the project groups of the real commercial firm in the field of IT. Extrapolation forecasting methods with a sliding base on the previous actual results. At the same time, the width of the base one to seven previous periods), and the type of extrapolating function. Approximating polynomials of zero, first and second degree are considered. Attention has also been paid to the method of exponential smoothing and Bayesian approach to diagnosis and prediction. For the integral the quality of forecasting used the value of the root-mean-square relative performance error. According to the results of the experiments, three optimal variants are selected. The first is the forecast for the sliding arithmetic average of the actual focus-factors for 3-4 previous periods. In the second variant, again, the sliding the average of actual focus factors for 3-5 sprints, but not arithmetic, and geometric. The third method for predicting is the product theoretical focus factor on the actual. We use the geometric mean it per the 1-2 sprints. In the mean square norm for both methods, the prediction error is the same, about 5.8%. If we estimate it not by the mean square metric, but by maximum deviation, then the latter option is slightly better. Results are intended to clarify the intuitive planning of sprints when performing real projects.

    Keywords: management, IT-project, SCRUM technology, sprint planning, forecast, focus factor, moving average, linear and quadratic regression, exponential smoothing, Bayesian approach, root-mean-square error, the best possible option

  • Linguistic model of heuristic planning in IT projects

    One of the key points of planning individual iterations in IT projects is the forecasting of the so-called focus factor. More specifically, it is the concentration of the workforce and the team's efforts to perform tasks. The purpose of this work was to clarify the previously obtained results on the choice of optimal methods of such prediction. This used another criterion for the quality of the forecast, not a mistake in planning the performance of the iteration, as before, and the inaccuracy of the prediction of the focus factor. The analysis carried out according to the new criterion fully confirms all the results obtained earlier. Among the considered mathematical methods of forecasting for planning in iterations of IT-projects the most suitable is extrapolation by moving average (both arithmetic and geometric) for the previous 1-4 periods. The error of the focus factor forecast for them is about 4.7%. Another aim of this work was the formalization of the intuitive methods of planning undertaken by specific teams of developers of projects. On this basis, within the framework of the theory of fuzzy sets with the use of linguistic variables, a heuristic forecasting model is developed. Numerical experiments on the basis of specific production data have shown for it a higher accuracy of the forecast than for extrapolation. The error was about 3% against 4.7%. The paper also presents a combined model using elements of both the heuristic approach and the above-mentioned extrapolation. It showed even higher accuracy of the forecast, with a mean square error of about 1.5%. The results obtained in this work, in our opinion, completely solve the problem of the optimal method of planning individual iterations in the implementation of IT projects.

    Keywords: management, IT-project, iterative nature, iteration planning, forecast, focus factor, moving average, standard error, linguistic variables, fuzzy analysis, heuristic model

  • To select the evaluation scale in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

    The study of the method errors depending on the choice of numerical approximation of the linguistic variables used is proposed. It is obtained that the necessary condition for the absence of objective (independent from the opinions of experts) reasons for the inconsistency of paired comparison matrices is the closure of the numerical scale relative to the composition of estimates. . In particular, for the classical Analytic Hierarchy Process coming from the works of A. Saati, such a scale is not closed. When the criteria of one level of hierarchy are not the same in terms of priorities relative to the overlying goals (and this situation often happens), even one expert Advisor, in principle, cannot give a consistent matrix of paired ratings. What, in fact, is due to the great attention in the classical considered technology to the methods of estimating inconsistency of the matrix of paired comparisons and its minimization. As the number of experts increases, this effect increases. A closed evaluation scale can be obtained from successive degrees of one any number. For purposes of powers of a number is 1.5, although not ruled out another choice. Для таких шкал объективные причины возникновения несогласованности матицы парных сравнений отсутствуют, а субъективные, связанные с несогласованностью мнений эксперта, могут быть устранены в процессе формирования оценок. The proposed method is explained by a concrete example of the use of the hierarchy analysis method in the assessment of personnel risks in small non-commercial projects.

    Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, expert evaluation, evaluation scale, matrix of paired comparisons, violation of transitivity, objective reasons for inconsistency, isolation relative to the composition, AT-projects, personnel risks

  • Method of factor analysis of hierarchies

    The work is devoted to the further extension of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In its classic version, the hierarchical structure of goals, factors, criteria and alternatives is set in advance. The calculation of priorities at each level is based on the matrices of paired comparisons obtained by the expert method. The paper proposes to build a table of the hierarchy of priorities directly by using measurements carried out in the target audience. For this purpose on the basis of the primary data received by questioning, the consecutive hierarchical factorization developed earlier by authors is carried out. As a result of this procedure, the full hierarchical structure of goals, factors and criteria is revealed, starting with the primary features and ending with the integral target factor of the whole task. In addition, for each identified level determined by the matrix of factor loadings, allowing to calculate the local priorities of the factors. Their global priorities with respect to the goals defined on the basis of the principle of the synthesis of the AHP. The proposed technique is illustrated by the example of the analysis of students ' perception of the educational process, which was conducted on the basis of extensive questionnaires in 2015 in SFEDU.

    Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, a survey, a consistent hierarchical factorization, table of hierarchy of factors, local priorities, a synthesis of the AHP global priorities, the perception of the educational process