This work completes a series of articles about the peculiarities of the analysis of the situations in the geo-politically unstable regions of the modern world. The article discusses the possibility of forecasting the pro-cessses in the unstable areas (regions) of the contemporary world. It analyses the difficulties of the implementation of the forecasting procedure connected with the multifactor combination of the geopolitical processes in a turbulent environment. Under consideration are both traditional and innovative methods of forecasting processes in weakly structured, unstable regions and limitrophe areas. Special attention is given to the scenario method, «rand-scenario» in particular. It is being emphasized that in modern conditions the transition to the paradigm of "unsustainable development" as well as full attention to the analysis and forecasting systems with nonlinear dynamics is of great importance.
Keywords: the geopolitically unstable areas (regions), forecasting, forsythe, complex forsythe, events and chains of events, the projection of “the launching codes”, trend, scenario method, «rand-scenario», drivers, jokers, non-linear dynamics, destructors, synerge
The article is an insight into the history of the use of the term "limitrophe" in Russian literature on geopolitics. The etymology of this term is considered in detail. It turns out, who and when for the first time in the literature used it, putting a geopolitical sense. Shows the General historical background of the era (1920-1930) when the "border States" were widely used by many authors in the Soviet Russia/USSR and in the Russian Diaspora. Examines the question of when and why the second "coming" of the term "border States" in the Russian geopolitical literature. In the context of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Pax Sovietica shows how has changed geopolitical interpretation of the term "limitrophe". In this regard, given the outline of the concept of the Great Limitrophe.
Keywords: the global geopolitical space, regions, rigid clusters, intermediate space, border States, the collapse of the Russian Empire, the Baltic-black sea area
This work represents the third article within the cycle devoted to the peculiarities of the analysis of the situations in geopolitically unstable zones of the modern world. This time the author focuses on the second stage of the mentioned scientific procedure. He assumes the analysis of the dynamics of such zones (regions) as multifactorial combinatorics, with the dominance of the conflict nature of interstate relations and the key role (in some cases) of non-regional players. An attempt is made to present unstable regions and the same kind of limitrophic zones as a combination and overlapping of the force fields of a different nature.
Keywords: modern world, geopolitically unstable zones, separation belts, limitrophic zones, interstate relations, multilateral and vertically organized, conflictness, asymmetrical conflits, international mediation, force fields
This work starts a series of the articles devoted to the analysis of the processes taking place in poorly structured and geopolitically unstable zones (regions) of the contemporary world. Considering the analysis of the specific situations as a special scientific procedure, the author looks at length at the instrumentation which is supposed to be used by a researcher of a relevant profile. The author proves the thesis of the inadmissibility of contrasting exact and non-exact methods in the investigation of geopolitical problems in the unstable and turbulent environment. Special attention is paid to revealing the possibilities of various forms of modelling which is more extensively used in the regional geopolitics. The analysis of the specific situations is interpreted by the author as a complex multi-level work consisting of two phases.
Keywords: contemporary world, geopolitically unstable zones and regions, analysis of the specific situations (ASS), situational analysis, historical descriptive methods in ASS, geographical and geopolitical mapping, methods of formalization and quantification
This work presents the second article within the series devoted to the peculiarities of the analysis of the situations in geopolitically unstable zones (regions) of the contemporary world. The author focuses on the first stage of this scientific procedure. It includes the determination of the geographical parameters of the region under investigation (or the problematic zone of the world), the study of the topography of the involved political powers and compiling their basic characteristics as well as the identification of the overall “architecture” the studied site.
Keywords: system analysis, situational analysis,“place-action” (pad), “local” states, the status and viability of the states, the geopolitical taxonomy of the region, the state’s power, the potential of the state, national interests, axis of national interests
December 19, 2016 marks the tenth anniversary of the death of Yuri Andreyevich Zhdanov (1919 - 2006) - a major Russian scientist, an outstanding organizer of science and the well-known public figure, Doctor of Chemistry, and the candidate of philosophical sciences, professor, corresponding member of the USSR Academy of Sciences / Russian Academy of Sciences, the actual member of many Russian and international academic associations and unions, the USSR State Prize winner; the man who headed the Rostov State University back in 1957, running it until 1988, went down in history of higher schools in the country as one of the most successful directors.It is in Zhdanov our university (formerly Warsaw, then Don, Rostov State later) became the pride of the South of Russia and the basic institution of the North Caucasus, one of the leading scientific, educational and cultural centers of the country. Itssuccessor RGU is now Southern Federal University. On the anniversary of the death of Yuri Andreyevich, we publish in the pages of «Engineering journal of Don» rather curious (and to some extent even unusual) material on Y.A. Zhdanov, written by a man who was not only well acquainted with him, but worked directly under him in the North-Caucasus scientific center of higher school-perhaps the most beloved offspring of Yuri Andreyevich. The author of the material PhD, Associate Professor Vladimir Ryabtsev. It is a pet of our university, one of his old-timers. Since the beginning of the 1990s, he participated in the development and implementation by scientists and specialists SKNCHS SFU a number of large-scale research and applied scientific projects of regional focus. In the period from 1996 to 2001 V. Ryabtsev headed Interuniversity Department of Regional (Caucasian studies) and the Caucasus countries of the Caucasus Department of the Institute - two unique for its time ""platforms"" (education and research), which existed in the structure SKNC HS. V.N.Ryabtsev and today continues to work here, as the lead researcher of the Center. In our disposal, V.N.Ryabtsev provided a material that is difficult to define clearly. On the one hand, this article is a human recollection, who personally knew the scientist, and even considers it one of its non-formal teachers; it is an attempt to draw attention to this still little known side of the creative heritage of Yuri Andreyevich, which once again demonstrates the versatility of his creative genius and an incredible erudition. It is a genre of science journalism, in which Y.A.Zhdanov worked successfully for many years. On the other hand, is the publication of very interesting material from the personal archive of the author - a review of one of the clearly undervalued during his lifetime, and has long been requiring reprinting books Y.A. Zhdanov); material does not lose its relevance to this day.
Keywords: scientific journalism, culture, tradition, Cultural Revolution, humanism
The article is devoted to the problem of the identification of the Black Sea – Caspian region as a special segment of the World Space in the postbypolar system. The Great Limitrophe conception developed by V.L. Tsymbursky and S.V. Khatuntsev is used as «the structural frame» for understanding modern peculiarities of this region. The author outlines two aspects of its identification: geopolitical and geocivilozational. He also introduces the key concept «limitroph territory» adapting it to the specific region. The key concept involves two other concepts – «shatterbelt» and «(inter)civilizational split zone». The article contains brand new facts on the Black Sea – Caspian region problem.
Keywords: «big political space», geopolitics, Black Sea – Caspian region, Great Limitrophe conception, limitrophe-territory, «shatterbellt», civilizational layer, «(inter)civilizational split zone».
The article analyses the problem of applying the scientific method of modeling to the investigation of geopolitical processes taking place at the world regional/sub regional “sites”. Preceding from three possible approaches to studying geopolitical dynamics under glocalisation, that is description, formalization and quantification, the author analyses three structural levels of geopolitical modeling. With this purpose in view he analyses the peculiarities and such constituents of its modification as ordinary, conceptual-graphical (cognitive) and mathematical modeling. Special attention is given to conceptual-graphical modeling and its specific language. Admitting the possibilities of using precise mathematical methods and procedures in geopolitics, the author takes into consideration their scantiness. In this respect the validity of mathematical methods and procedures must be provided with quality expert evaluation. The author's message is that the use of heuristic options of modeling in regional geopolitics may serve as the pledge to growing science capacity of this field of knowledge.
Keywords: geopolitics, world region/sub region, glocalization, situation analysis, mapping, map, modeling, modeling of the geopolitical processes, usual (simple) geopolitical modeling, conceptual-graphical (cognitive) mapping, graph