Probabilistic model of intrapersonal conflict
Abstract
Probabilistic model of intrapersonal conflict
Incoming article date: 25.08.2017The models of resolution of the main types of intrapersonal conflict are given. They are all connected with the choice of the object or action (equal or different valence) of two equiprobable (still attractive). The models were built in the discrete event approximation. It is based on the assumption that the opinion of the subjects about the usefulness of the objects undergoing random fluctuations at each step. Their attraction is the same only average. The second basic hypothesis is that the subject intuitively changes its assessment of the probability of selection after the change of the attractiveness. The transformation probability is modeled using Bayesian theory of decision-making. Numerical experiments showed the viability of such model. It is obtained that in the end, the situation with the choice of is permitted in one direction or another (equiprobable at the level of the final decision). The time resolution is inversely proportional to the width of the fluctuation of attraction. In the work it is also investigated the influence of evaluation by the subject of the significance of the objects. Obtained as a very low evaluation, and Vice versa, too high, hinder the resolution of conflict. The minimum completion time is achieved a little distant relation of the subject to the object (process) conflict. The results are as purely situational, specific significance, and the overall methodological. The presented models allow for an easy generalization to more complex cases involving a variety of factors influence and can serve as a basis for such studies.
Keywords: conflict, intrapersonal, simulation, discrete-event approximation, the fluctuations of attraction, the choice situation, probability assessment, Bayesian theory, decision-making, perception of the significance of the objects of the conflict