Empirical analysis of the predictive properties of the continuous form of the maximum consistency method
Abstract
Empirical analysis of the predictive properties of the continuous form of the maximum consistency method
Incoming article date: 09.01.2024The article studies the possibility of using the continuous form of the maximum consistency method when constructing regression models to calculate the forecast values of the air transport passenger turnover indicator in the Russian Federation. The method under study is compared with classical methods of regression analysis - least squares and moduli. To assess the predictive properties of the methods, the average relative forecast error and the continuous form of the criterion for the consistency of behavior between the calculated and actual values of the dependent variable are used. As a result of the analysis, a conclusion was made about the possibility of using the method under study to solve forecast problems.
Keywords: least squares method, continuous form of the maximum consistency method, modeling, passenger turnover, air transport, adequacy criteria