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Organizational and technological approaches to mathematical modeling and forecasting of construction site accident risk

Abstract

Organizational and technological approaches to mathematical modeling and forecasting of construction site accident risk

Sheina S.G., Mishchenko V.Ya., , Sergeev Yu.D., Myasishchev R.Yu., Sergeeva A.Yu

Incoming article date: 25.01.2025

This article discusses effective ways and means for analyzing the condition of real estate objects, as well as predicting changes in their operational properties over time. These approaches open up prospects for improving the accuracy of predictions of wear patterns of both physical and functional components, as well as the aging of building structures, structures and engineering systems. Ultimately, this helps to maintain the proper level of their work and ensure high-quality functioning. Considerable attention is also paid to the general kinetic theory of structural wear of construction facilities, as it is known that this theory makes it possible to assess the corresponding reliability risks with fairly high accuracy, depending on the service life of the building structures of the facility. As a research tool, it is proposed to use a universal mathematical model of wear, which illustrates the dynamics of the processes of structuring and destruction of building systems throughout their entire service life. The model reflects the constant interaction of the structure with long-term impact factors. A statistical model has also been developed to determine the probability of the transition of building elements to a state of destruction due to the influence of adverse factors, which is directly related to the loss of their reliability.

Keywords: organizational and technological solutions, reliability, quality control, efficiency, cost, labor productivity