Organization of a competition for regression models of unloading wagons on railway transport

Abstract

Organization of a competition for regression models of unloading wagons on railway transport

Noskov S.I., Pashkov D.V., Ulybin T.T, Ulybina A.Yu.

Incoming article date: 22.04.2023

The paper describes the procedure for conducting a competition for regression models based on statistical data for the East Siberian Railway. At the same time, it is assumed to build a set of additive alternative versions of the model with the subsequent choice of the best option based on the involvement of a number of adequacy criteria. The unloading of wagons is singled out as the output variable of the model, and the input variables are: the average gross weight of a freight train, cases of failures of technical means of the 1st – 2nd category of operational nature, the working fleet of freight wagons. The implementation of the model competition allowed us to build over two hundred alternative options, from which the best alternative was selected using multi-criteria selection methods based in this case on a continuous criterion of consistency of behavior.

Keywords: railway transport, mathematical model, regression analysis, least squares method, model competition, adequacy criteria, multi-criteria selection