The probabilistic model of perception of concrete propaganda information is presented. Previously, such a model was developed by us for subjects with a neutral attitude to propaganda in General. Now it is generalized to the case of arbitrary relation. In the model, the perception of a particular news is stochastic in nature, and in the limit goes to the levels of complete reliability or complete unreliability. At the same time, there is a connection between the level of global perception of propaganda as a whole and the levels of local perceptions averaged over the entire previous ensemble of specific news . On a concrete example it is shown that the offered model allows to restore for any investigated group dynamics of local perception of concrete information on known functions of distribution of global perception. This information is important to identify the features of perception, depending on the external and internal characteristics of the study group. In addition, the model presented in this article is the basic one. One of its purposes is to serve as a basis for further expansion along the way of taking into account the impact of the social environment. That is supposed to hold in the future.
Keywords: propaganda, perception, in General, individual news, modeling, probabilistic-stochastic approach, discrete-event approximation, Bayesian theory, multi-agent analysis
Within the framework of the two-fluid Landau theory, flows into helium II inside a rotating cylinder are investigated. Special attention is paid to the analysis of excitation by centrifugal forces of counter-current (by super-fluid and normal components) flows. In the approximation of incompressible fluid, an analytical solution of the equations of motion, vortex-free for both components is obtained. The tangential velocities for it are the same as those of a rotating solid body, with the normal and superfluid components moving in opposite directions, with different angular velocities. It's resulting vorticity is compensated by a spiraled counter-current radical movements. Such solution has no axial symmetry and has a tangential gap along the radius. Despite its instability, it is of some interest. First, it can be corrected by stabilizing deformations. In addition, it shows the paths of loss of stability of high-symmetric States. In particular, in our opinion, this type of disturbance are intermediate flow from Landau (superfluid component is at rest) one to the rotation of the Feynman type (in the superfluid part of a system of vortices).
Keywords: helium II, rotating cylinder, two-fluid theory, counter-current flows, centrifugal forces, vorticity compensation
At the end of 2018, a pilot survey of DSTU students was conducted to identify their perception of propaganda in General. In total 169 respondents of 1 - 4 courses, age from 17 to 37 years were interviewed. Of these, 96 people were technical specialties, 73 were humanitarian. The paper presents the results obtained by the cognitive block of the questionnaire. It asked students to describe the fairness of the policy pursued by the state and the credibility of both government and opposition political propaganda in General. At the same time, domestic and foreign policy were considered separately. Diagrams of the distribution of these six values by respondents are given. It is received that in General on the investigated group the assessment of justice of policy of the state can be called rather negative. For domestic policy, 70% of respondents indicated a level of justice below the average, 36% of them consider it completely unfair. For foreign policy, these figures are 10% better. Approximately the same regularities are observed for assessing the reliability of political propaganda, both Pro-government and opposition. At the same time, about 10% consider opposition propaganda to be more reliable.
Keywords: perception, government propaganda , opposition propaganda, questioning, cognitive attitudes, distribution functions, evaluation, credibility of propaganda, justice of foreign and domestic policy
The article presents information about the training program "Use of information technologies in engineering, scientific, administrative and management activities", developed within the framework of the project of the "Engineering open public forum of scientific and technological activities, social and technological entrepreneurship "rozmys", which is carried out using the grant of the President of the Russian Federation for the development of civil society, provided by the presidential grants Fund. The program is intended for a wide range of engineers and specialists of industrial enterprises, scientists, research engineers, University professors, specialists in the field of administrative and management activities. In it, participants are invited to master a number of professional competencies in the field of organizational management using computer modeling. Forms of training are distance video lectures and practical classes. For each topic, an intermediate test is carried out, and their results are put up a final assessment. Participants who have successfully completed the training receive a certificate confirming the passage of 16 hour refresher course on our program.
Keywords: distance education, advanced training, organizational management, computer modeling, computer simulators
This study examines the dynamics of the perception of individual segments of the advocacy news. A probabilistic-stochastic approach for simulation is proposed. As the main actor describing the situation, the probability of a positive assessment of the veracity of the new information by a separate subject is taken. For the description of the process of forming the relation to it the discrete-event paradigm is chosen. The change in the level of evaluation occurs under the influence of random perturbations of the individual's opinion, experienced at discrete moments of time. An intuitive recalculation after this perception of the news is modeled based on Bayes ' theory of decision making. Mathematically, this approach fully coincides with the previously used by us in the numerical analysis of the resolution of intrapersonal conflicts. The results revealed at that time were adapted to study the dynamics of the perception of propaganda news by a neutral part of the population. Which is made by the individuals estimating truthfulness of propaganda activity as a whole neutrally, at the level of ½ (on a scale from 0 to +1). It is found that when assessing specific news such neutrality is violated, in the end, the individual believes the news is either completely true or false. But it is already being restored at the level of the ensemble of all news. About half of them are considered by the individual to be true, half – false. The time before the formation of the final perception of a particular news depends on the degree of its importance for the subject, and the minimum is observed at the level of significance slightly below the maximum. The model of taking into account the social environment in the resolution of intrapersonal conflicts has also been adapted for the analysis of the perception of propaganda information. While the assessments of the credibility of the individual stories of neighbors are correlated. Over time, clusters with the same perception are formed in society. Ideally, in the absence of other influences, eventually one opinion is formed in the whole study group. Here again, for some propaganda news, the neutrality of perception is broken, but it is restored at the level of the ensemble of all news. The proposed models can be used to study not only the neutral part of the population, but also groups with any level of assessment of the truthfulness of propaganda in General, both homogeneous and heterogeneous in this parameter. In addition, the proposed approach can serve as a basis for the study of the impact of agents of influence (in the information space) and the development of advocacy strategies.
Keywords: propaganda, perception, in General, separate news, modeling, probabilistic-stochastic approach, discrete-event approximation, Bayesian theory, multi-agent analysis, social environment, clustering
The paper discusses the flow induced by centrifugal forces in helium II on the outside of the rotating cylinder. The analysis was carried out in the framework of Landau's two-fluid theory, in the approximation of a plane incompressible fluid. A two-parameter family of solutions of the equations of motion is revealed, in which the centrifugal forces for the normal component are fully compensated by counter-current (normal and super-fluid components) flows. According to preliminary estimates, the most stable of them is the flow, in which the pressure forces in the superconducting part are also compensated, The results show that in the analysis of helium II rotations it is necessary to take into account countercurrent instabilities.
Keywords: helium II, rotating cylinder, two-fluid theory, counter-current flows, stability, centrifugal forces, pressure compensation
The article presents information about the training program "Use of information technologies in engineering, scientific, administrative and management activities", developed within the framework of the project of the "Engineering open public forum of scientific and technological activities, social and technological entrepreneurship "rozmys", which is carried out using the grant of the President of the Russian Federation for the development of civil society, provided by the presidential grants Fund. The program is intended for a wide range of engineers and specialists of industrial enterprises, scientists, research engineers, University professors, specialists in the field of administrative and management activities. In it, participants are invited to master a number of professional competencies in the field of organizational management using computer modeling. Forms of training are distance video lectures and practical classes. For each topic, an intermediate test is carried out, and their results are put up a final assessment. Participants who have successfully completed the training receive a certificate confirming the passage of 16 hour refresher course on our program.
Keywords: distance education, advanced training, organizational management, computer modeling, computer simulators
Concentration changes in the frequencies of Raman spectra in binary salt molten alkali metal systems with a common cation Li / ClO4, NO3 are shown. An antibiotic change in the frequencies of stretching vibrations is noted.
Keywords: Concentration changes in the frequencies of Raman spectra in binary salt molten alkali metal systems with a common cation Li / ClO4, NO3 are shown. An antibiotic change in the frequencies of stretching vibrations is noted
The work is devoted to one of the indicators of hidden family aggression – emotional components of family attitudes. The research is based on the pilot measurements carried out by the survey using the method of semantic differential. A total of 50 people were interviewed, including 18 men and 32 women, aged 18 to 64 years. The option with calibration was used, and respondents were asked to characterize on a semantic scale the real families and both ideal positive and negative ones. Images of ideal constructs defined in semantic space the scale and direction. In accordance with Coombs's "ideal point" approach, the level of emotional perception was estimated by us from the relative distances from the image of the real object to the images of ideal constructs. Analysis was performed for each respondent separately, and based on the results the distribution functions of emotional perception by respondents were built. They reflected the internal structure of the group for affective components. The calculations were performed in the linear approximation (for half-difference of the above-mentioned relative distances) and within the framework of the non-linear psychosemantic phenomenological model. In the last the levels of perception are given in the form of differential equations, which were solved by the Monte Carlo method with by AnyLogic multi-agent simulation package. The obtained results confirm the earlier estimates based on the averaged data. The average value of the level of emotional perception throughout the study audience is positive (0.33 on a scale from -1 to +1), which indicates the absence of aggressive behavior for the majority of respondents. A strongly negative level (from -0.5 to -1) showed only 6%, against this background, they can develop aggressive behavior. Another 6% are characterized by a slight emotional irritation in the family sphere (the level from -0.1 to -0.3), this is an intermediate group which under adverse conditions can develop into a risk group. For the rest of the study audience (88%) emotional relationships in the family are not aggressive, positive.
Keywords: semantic differential, subjective perception, latent variables, psychosemantic phenomenological model, emotional perception, multi-agent modeling, distribution function
At the moment one of the most advanced flexible methodologies IT project management is SCRUM technology. Its feature is the partition of the whole work on short iterations (sprints), each of which represents a cyclic process, repeated all the way through the product development process. This allows you to constantly monitor the emerging risks and minimize them effects. Each sprint starts with planning, which sets the pace of work and stimulates high performance. The key point of planning is predicting the level of focus of the team on the implementation of the tasks, the so-called focus factor. It is the ratio productivity to labor intensity. The paper presents the results of numerical experiments to identify the best methods for predicting this indicator. In their the production data of one of the project groups of the real commercial firm in the field of IT. Extrapolation forecasting methods with a sliding base on the previous actual results. At the same time, the width of the base one to seven previous periods), and the type of extrapolating function. Approximating polynomials of zero, first and second degree are considered. Attention has also been paid to the method of exponential smoothing and Bayesian approach to diagnosis and prediction. For the integral the quality of forecasting used the value of the root-mean-square relative performance error. According to the results of the experiments, three optimal variants are selected. The first is the forecast for the sliding arithmetic average of the actual focus-factors for 3-4 previous periods. In the second variant, again, the sliding the average of actual focus factors for 3-5 sprints, but not arithmetic, and geometric. The third method for predicting is the product theoretical focus factor on the actual. We use the geometric mean it per the 1-2 sprints. In the mean square norm for both methods, the prediction error is the same, about 5.8%. If we estimate it not by the mean square metric, but by maximum deviation, then the latter option is slightly better. Results are intended to clarify the intuitive planning of sprints when performing real projects.
Keywords: management, IT-project, SCRUM technology, sprint planning, forecast, focus factor, moving average, linear and quadratic regression, exponential smoothing, Bayesian approach, root-mean-square error, the best possible option
One of the key points of planning individual iterations in IT projects is the forecasting of the so-called focus factor. More specifically, it is the concentration of the workforce and the team's efforts to perform tasks. The purpose of this work was to clarify the previously obtained results on the choice of optimal methods of such prediction. This used another criterion for the quality of the forecast, not a mistake in planning the performance of the iteration, as before, and the inaccuracy of the prediction of the focus factor. The analysis carried out according to the new criterion fully confirms all the results obtained earlier. Among the considered mathematical methods of forecasting for planning in iterations of IT-projects the most suitable is extrapolation by moving average (both arithmetic and geometric) for the previous 1-4 periods. The error of the focus factor forecast for them is about 4.7%. Another aim of this work was the formalization of the intuitive methods of planning undertaken by specific teams of developers of projects. On this basis, within the framework of the theory of fuzzy sets with the use of linguistic variables, a heuristic forecasting model is developed. Numerical experiments on the basis of specific production data have shown for it a higher accuracy of the forecast than for extrapolation. The error was about 3% against 4.7%. The paper also presents a combined model using elements of both the heuristic approach and the above-mentioned extrapolation. It showed even higher accuracy of the forecast, with a mean square error of about 1.5%. The results obtained in this work, in our opinion, completely solve the problem of the optimal method of planning individual iterations in the implementation of IT projects.
Keywords: management, IT-project, iterative nature, iteration planning, forecast, focus factor, moving average, standard error, linguistic variables, fuzzy analysis, heuristic model
The project for creation of the first in Russia Engineering Forum of scientific and technological activities, social and technological entrepreneurship “Rozmysly” is presented, this forum develops the principles of an open public interdisciplinary electronic environment. The substantiation of the social significance of the project is given. The new project implies involving an even wider range of practitioners, research engineers, young scientists, applicants, graduate students, students and even senior pupils in scientific engineering knowledge by providing them with the opportunity to publish, read and discuss the results of promising research and development works, engineering solutions, inventions and rationalization or innovative proposals in the form of an electronic preprint. Conceptually, the project represents a new culture of scientific publications based on global and mini Internet platforms. It is shown that the basic advantage is achieved through the implementation of an open access initiative. From the date of publication, the material is available for the widest possible range of readers. The project is a kind of an interdisciplinary scientific and technological engineering forum.
Keywords: site, Internet platform, engineering forum and storage, open access, preprint, foresight
The study of the method errors depending on the choice of numerical approximation of the linguistic variables used is proposed. It is obtained that the necessary condition for the absence of objective (independent from the opinions of experts) reasons for the inconsistency of paired comparison matrices is the closure of the numerical scale relative to the composition of estimates. . In particular, for the classical Analytic Hierarchy Process coming from the works of A. Saati, such a scale is not closed. When the criteria of one level of hierarchy are not the same in terms of priorities relative to the overlying goals (and this situation often happens), even one expert Advisor, in principle, cannot give a consistent matrix of paired ratings. What, in fact, is due to the great attention in the classical considered technology to the methods of estimating inconsistency of the matrix of paired comparisons and its minimization. As the number of experts increases, this effect increases. A closed evaluation scale can be obtained from successive degrees of one any number. For purposes of powers of a number is 1.5, although not ruled out another choice. Для таких шкал объективные причины возникновения несогласованности матицы парных сравнений отсутствуют, а субъективные, связанные с несогласованностью мнений эксперта, могут быть устранены в процессе формирования оценок. The proposed method is explained by a concrete example of the use of the hierarchy analysis method in the assessment of personnel risks in small non-commercial projects.
Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, expert evaluation, evaluation scale, matrix of paired comparisons, violation of transitivity, objective reasons for inconsistency, isolation relative to the composition, AT-projects, personnel risks
The work is devoted to the further extension of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In its classic version, the hierarchical structure of goals, factors, criteria and alternatives is set in advance. The calculation of priorities at each level is based on the matrices of paired comparisons obtained by the expert method. The paper proposes to build a table of the hierarchy of priorities directly by using measurements carried out in the target audience. For this purpose on the basis of the primary data received by questioning, the consecutive hierarchical factorization developed earlier by authors is carried out. As a result of this procedure, the full hierarchical structure of goals, factors and criteria is revealed, starting with the primary features and ending with the integral target factor of the whole task. In addition, for each identified level determined by the matrix of factor loadings, allowing to calculate the local priorities of the factors. Their global priorities with respect to the goals defined on the basis of the principle of the synthesis of the AHP. The proposed technique is illustrated by the example of the analysis of students ' perception of the educational process, which was conducted on the basis of extensive questionnaires in 2015 in SFEDU.
Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, a survey, a consistent hierarchical factorization, table of hierarchy of factors, local priorities, a synthesis of the AHP global priorities, the perception of the educational process
The models of resolution of the main types of intrapersonal conflict are given. They are all connected with the choice of the object or action (equal or different valence) of two equiprobable (still attractive). The models were built in the discrete event approximation. It is based on the assumption that the opinion of the subjects about the usefulness of the objects undergoing random fluctuations at each step. Their attraction is the same only average. The second basic hypothesis is that the subject intuitively changes its assessment of the probability of selection after the change of the attractiveness. The transformation probability is modeled using Bayesian theory of decision-making. Numerical experiments showed the viability of such model. It is obtained that in the end, the situation with the choice of is permitted in one direction or another (equiprobable at the level of the final decision). The time resolution is inversely proportional to the width of the fluctuation of attraction. In the work it is also investigated the influence of evaluation by the subject of the significance of the objects. Obtained as a very low evaluation, and Vice versa, too high, hinder the resolution of conflict. The minimum completion time is achieved a little distant relation of the subject to the object (process) conflict. The results are as purely situational, specific significance, and the overall methodological. The presented models allow for an easy generalization to more complex cases involving a variety of factors influence and can serve as a basis for such studies.
Keywords: conflict, intrapersonal, simulation, discrete-event approximation, the fluctuations of attraction, the choice situation, probability assessment, Bayesian theory, decision-making, perception of the significance of the objects of the conflict