Prediction of volumes of the Customs payments with the use of dummy variables

Abstract

Prediction of volumes of the Customs payments with the use of dummy variables

Tsvil М.М., Velikanova E.S.

Incoming article date: 23.02.2020

The articlegives an econometric analysis of the volume of the Customs payments for imports of the group 25 “Salt; sulfur; soils and stone; plaster materials, lime and cement” of the Customs Nomenclatureof the foreign trade activities of EAEU, the Customs declaration of which is carried out in the region of the Rostov Customs office operation. For the purpose of forecasting, a multiplicative model of the series is constructed based on monthly data from 01.01.2017 to 31.10.2019. The apparatus of fictitious variables is used to obtain the trend equation. A forecast is made on the basis of the received model.

Keywords: import, Customs payments, econometric model, trend, seasonal component, fictitious variables, multiplicative model, forecast