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Develop solutions in times of crisis and uncertainty


Develop solutions in times of crisis and uncertainty

O.A. Pobegaylov

Incoming article date: 05.06.2013

In our hard time the main methods of decision-making are axiomatic, heuristic and verbal. Heuristic approach corresponds to the repeating difficult situations which aren't giving in to the direct mathematical analysis. The selection process is modeled as solutions to reproduce the course of human reasoning.
The emergency situation on separate object is comparable to crisis in economy of the whole state. On the detailed analysis and checks simply there is no time. The most perspective directions here – application of heuristic models and the quantum theory on the basis of system approach to the solution of arising problems. Conscious intervention of managers in development of system is carried out by control of signs of the organization of processes. To reduce novelty and complexity of a problem, it is necessary to receive additional information. Based on this information, the experience and intuition, the head gives to results estimated probability. When costs of collecting additional information are great, it is possible to assume probability of events on the basis of last experience and judgments.
Achievement of the planned purpose with orientation to the future can be provided at concentration of the main influence on the future analysis (including on the analysis of hypothetical crisis situations), instead of the past.  

Keywords: сrisis, methods, axiomatic, verbal, heuristic, uncertainty, information, risk, system, chaos