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Mathematical assessment of statistical data analysis based on the comparison of linear trends

Abstract

Mathematical assessment of statistical data analysis based on the comparison of linear trends

Lavlinskiy V.V., Dushko D.S., Shvetsov A.S.

Incoming article date: 12.12.2025

The coefficients of determination and the absolute values of forecast assessment results based on the use of linear trends for different samples of initial data, varied by increasing amplitude over time intervals, are considered. A new linear method of forecast boundaries for forecast assessment (data extrapolation) is proposed.

Keywords: system analysis, statistical data, mathematical trend assessment, forecast evaluation, confidence interval, method of forecast limits