×

You are using an outdated browser Internet Explorer. It does not support some functions of the site.

Recommend that you install one of the following browsers: Firefox, Opera or Chrome.

Contacts:

+7 961 270-60-01
ivdon3@bk.ru

Adaptive methods of short-term forecast of the physical volumes in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation

Abstract

Adaptive methods of short-term forecast of the physical volumes in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation

Tsvil М.М., Kudryavtsev. O.E., Lyubitskaya Yu.I.

Incoming article date: 10.12.2017

The article deals with the construction of the exponential smoothing model and seasonal model of the time series on monthly weight data (kg) on imports of commodity groups 07 «Vegetables and certain edible root crops and tuber crops» from 01.2014 up to 09.2017 in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation. According to the derived model the forecast has been made for October, November and December of 2017 by the weight of the product group 07 in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation.

Keywords: econometrics, time series, adaptive methods, exponential moving average, modeling, seasonality coefficient, forecasting