About the Possibilities of Forecasting of the Situations in the geopolitically unstable Areas (Regions)of the Contemporary World and of the Methods of this Work
Abstract
About the Possibilities of Forecasting of the Situations in the geopolitically unstable Areas (Regions)of the Contemporary World and of the Methods of this Work
Incoming article date: 13.11.2018This work completes a series of articles about the peculiarities of the analysis of the situations in the geo-politically unstable regions of the modern world. The article discusses the possibility of forecasting the pro-cessses in the unstable areas (regions) of the contemporary world. It analyses the difficulties of the implementation of the forecasting procedure connected with the multifactor combination of the geopolitical processes in a turbulent environment. Under consideration are both traditional and innovative methods of forecasting processes in weakly structured, unstable regions and limitrophe areas. Special attention is given to the scenario method, «rand-scenario» in particular. It is being emphasized that in modern conditions the transition to the paradigm of "unsustainable development" as well as full attention to the analysis and forecasting systems with nonlinear dynamics is of great importance.
Keywords: the geopolitically unstable areas (regions), forecasting, forsythe, complex forsythe, events and chains of events, the projection of “the launching codes”, trend, scenario method, «rand-scenario», drivers, jokers, non-linear dynamics, destructors, synerge