This work completes a series of articles about the peculiarities of the analysis of the situations in the geo-politically unstable regions of the modern world. The article discusses the possibility of forecasting the pro-cessses in the unstable areas (regions) of the contemporary world. It analyses the difficulties of the implementation of the forecasting procedure connected with the multifactor combination of the geopolitical processes in a turbulent environment. Under consideration are both traditional and innovative methods of forecasting processes in weakly structured, unstable regions and limitrophe areas. Special attention is given to the scenario method, «rand-scenario» in particular. It is being emphasized that in modern conditions the transition to the paradigm of "unsustainable development" as well as full attention to the analysis and forecasting systems with nonlinear dynamics is of great importance.
Keywords: the geopolitically unstable areas (regions), forecasting, forsythe, complex forsythe, events and chains of events, the projection of “the launching codes”, trend, scenario method, «rand-scenario», drivers, jokers, non-linear dynamics, destructors, synerge
This work represents the third article within the cycle devoted to the peculiarities of the analysis of the situations in geopolitically unstable zones of the modern world. This time the author focuses on the second stage of the mentioned scientific procedure. He assumes the analysis of the dynamics of such zones (regions) as multifactorial combinatorics, with the dominance of the conflict nature of interstate relations and the key role (in some cases) of non-regional players. An attempt is made to present unstable regions and the same kind of limitrophic zones as a combination and overlapping of the force fields of a different nature.
Keywords: modern world, geopolitically unstable zones, separation belts, limitrophic zones, interstate relations, multilateral and vertically organized, conflictness, asymmetrical conflits, international mediation, force fields