The article is devoted to the problems of managing the implementation of multi-scenario, multi-stage projects under conditions of uncertainty. The proposed approach is based on representing the project model in the form of a scenario network. The developed fuzzy linguistic model of a project stage is a set of linguistic variables corresponding to the stage indicators and external factors influencing the subsequent implementation of the project. The decisive rules for choosing the arc of transition to the next stage are constructed in the form of fuzzy products, the left parts of which are fuzzy statements regarding the preference of possible options. The constructed decision support procedure is based on the use of the Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm, which has high interpretability. The proposed approach allows for multi-scenario planning and adaptability of management of the implementation of multi-stage projects.

Keywords: multi-scenario multi-stage projects, adaptive project management, scenario network, decision support, linguistic variable, fuzzy inference

The work is devoted to the problems of using modern digital technologies to manage the implementation of programs for the development of regional socio-economic systems. An approach based on the use of intelligent (knowledge-oriented) informationsystems for monitoring and analyzing the progress of programs is proposed. As a model for representing knowledge about the subject area, it is proposed to use the apparatus of the theory of linguistic variables and fuzzy production rules, which makes it possible to take into account the high level of uncertainty due to both the specifics of socio-economic processes and possible changes in external conditions. The inference engine included in the information system is based on the explicitly interpreted procedure of Mamdani's fuzzy logical inference, which makes it possible to form explanations of the course of reasoning. The developed structure of the intellectual information system is a concretization and expansion of the traditional structure, taking into account the reflection of the specifics of the tasks of managing the implementation of programs for the socio-economic development of the region. The preliminary results of the experimental operation of the research prototype of the developed system can serve as confirmation of the effectiveness of the proposed design solutions.

Keywords: regional socio-economic program, linguistic variable, fuzzy production rule, fuzzy logical inference, information and analytical system