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  • Intelligent support for adaptive construction of project trajectory

    The article is devoted to the problems of managing the implementation of multi-scenario, multi-stage projects under conditions of uncertainty. The proposed approach is based on representing the project model in the form of a scenario network. The developed fuzzy linguistic model of a project stage is a set of linguistic variables corresponding to the stage indicators and external factors influencing the subsequent implementation of the project. The decisive rules for choosing the arc of transition to the next stage are constructed in the form of fuzzy products, the left parts of which are fuzzy statements regarding the preference of possible options. The constructed decision support procedure is based on the use of the Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm, which has high interpretability. The proposed approach allows for multi-scenario planning and adaptability of management of the implementation of multi-stage projects.

    Keywords: multi-scenario multi-stage projects, adaptive project management, scenario network, decision support, linguistic variable, fuzzy inference

  • Support for decision making when choosing a project for autonomous power generation for small industrial enterprises

    The work is devoted to the problem of providing electrical energy to remote production enterprises in the absence of a centralized power supply. The purpose of the work is to develop decision support tools for choosing autonomous power generation projects from a large number of possible alternatives. To achieve this purpose, a hierarchy of criteria was constructed and a comparative analysis of existing technical and economic solutions in the field of small-scale autonomous energy was carried out. It is shown that when choosing a power generation project for a particular enterprise, there is a fairly large number of alternatives, which makes the use of commonly used decision support procedures based on the hierarchy analysis method/analytical network method (in the classical version) ineffective. An iterative procedure with dynamic changes in feedback between criteria and alternatives is proposed, which makes it possible to reduce the dimension of the supermatrix during the calculation process and, thereby, reduce the time complexity of the algorithms. The effectiveness of the proposed modification of the analytical network method is confirmed by calculations. The constructed procedure for selecting an autonomous power generation project makes it possible to increase the level of scientific validity of technical and economic decisions when expanding the production activities of small enterprises in remote and sparsely populated areas.

    Keywords: autonomous power system, decision support, analytical network method

  • Simulation of the design activity diversification of innovative enterprise

    The work is devoted to the problems of using modern digital technologies to manage the implementation of programs for the development of regional socio-economic systems. An approach based on the use of intelligent (knowledge-oriented) informationsystems for monitoring and analyzing the progress of programs is proposed. As a model for representing knowledge about the subject area, it is proposed to use the apparatus of the theory of linguistic variables and fuzzy production rules, which makes it possible to take into account the high level of uncertainty due to both the specifics of socio-economic processes and possible changes in external conditions. The inference engine included in the information system is based on the explicitly interpreted procedure of Mamdani's fuzzy logical inference, which makes it possible to form explanations of the course of reasoning. The developed structure of the intellectual information system is a concretization and expansion of the traditional structure, taking into account the reflection of the specifics of the tasks of managing the implementation of programs for the socio-economic development of the region. The preliminary results of the experimental operation of the research prototype of the developed system can serve as confirmation of the effectiveness of the proposed design solutions.

    Keywords: regional socio-economic program, linguistic variable, fuzzy production rule, fuzzy logical inference, information and analytical system