The article deals with the forecasting of direct material damage to urban areas depending on the number of fires based on official data of the Ministry of Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters, presented in state reports on the state of protection of the population and territories of the Russian Federation from natural and man-made emergencies for five years, based on the model of correlation analysis, which allows us to determine the degree of mutual influence of the parameters under consideration and the linear regression responsible for determining trends for subsequent years. The analysis of the reasons associated with the lack of the possibility of assessing the damage resulting from the fire of the structures of the building or its premises and its subsequent extinguishing in order to increase the economic efficiency of the cost examination during the restoration of real estate is an auxiliary basis for the construction of a correlation-regressive forecasting model.

Keywords: fires, cost assessment, cost of restoration repairs, real estate objects, economic efficiency, statistics, direct material damage, correlation and regression analysis